By David Sher.
Who says there’s no such thing as a ‘sure thing’?
I’m not a risk taker.
It’s just not my nature.
I never liked to gamble or take big chances.
Through the years I’ve missed lots of opportunities.
Back in the ’80s, a local developer drove me to what felt like the middle of nowhere and pointed to some land. “There’s a big development about to be announced down the road,” he said. “This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy a soon-to-be-valuable property.” I passed. That “unannounced” development was the Riverchase Galleria.
Around 2015, a friend of mine discovered cryptocurrencies and begged me to buy Bitcoin selling for about $1,000. He warned that if I didn’t buy it now I would regret it. I told him this was one of the craziest ideas I’d ever heard. As I write this, that Bitcoin is worth $115,000.
Later a different friend’s son went to work for Nvidia, a company I had never heard of in Huntsville. The stock was selling for about a dollar (split-adjusted). Friends and relatives bought in. I didn’t think it made sense to buy a stock just because I happened to know a really smart engineering student from Auburn.
Today the stock is selling for about $177 a share and Nvidia is recognized as the world’s largest capitalized stock— reaching a value of $4.066 trillion–larger than Apple, Alphabet, or Facebook.
Three chances. Three passes. Three missed windfalls.
Then I bet on a sure thing
However, at the time, I didn’t know it was a sure thing. I didn’t even think of it as an investment.
In 1976, my wife and I were living in a rental duplex with our six-year-old son and three-year-old daughter. We made the difficult decision to buy a home in Mountain Brook because of the excellent school system. We bought a small split-level home for $52,000 with an 8% mortgage rate. The real estate agent promised us that interest rates would never be this low again. (Actually, interest rates were never that high again)
At last, we finally made a good investment.
In 2004, after our children graduated high school, we sold that house for $235,000. A good return—but we never saw what was coming.
A few years ago, I noticed our old house was on the market for $500,000—more than double what we sold it for. The price was quickly bid up to $552,000. The “bid up” amount—$52,000—was exactly what we’d paid for that small split-level home in 1976.
Today that Mountain Brook home has a Zillow estimated value of $781,900.
Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, & Homewood are sure bets
Homes in these over-the-mountain communities have seen astronomical increases in home values.
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Vestavia Hills: $613,260
One commonality: All three cites have great schools
Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, and Homewood have figured it out.
Families will stretch to live where their kids can attend top schools. That steady demand supports prices through good times and bad.
The above school districts are consistently ranked the best in Alabama: According to the Alabama Department of Education’s most recent report card, Mountain Brook Schools are rated 98, Vestavia Hills, 97, and Homewood, 96. Those aren’t accidents; they’re the product of decades of focus, leadership, and a community that shows up for its children.
But there’s a flip side. As values rise, most people are priced out. Access to the “best” education becomes a function of your ZIP code—and your bank account. That’s not healthy for our region.
Here’s the lesson my “sure thing” taught me: the most reliable investment isn’t the house—it’s the school system underneath it.
The obvious solution for our segmented region
If we want a stronger metro Birmingham, we need more excellent schools.
Imagine if cities across Jefferson County, including the City of Birmingham—built reputations for great teaching, safe, well-equipped campuses, and clear, measurable results. Imagine parents not feeling like they must “win” the housing lottery to secure a great education.
Do that, and demand starts to spread. Neighborhoods stabilize. Property values rise where they’ve lagged. Families stop leaving for a handful of ZIP codes.
I may never be a risk taker. But I’ve learned this much: if you want a “sure thing,” build a great school.
The house—and the future—will follow.
David Sher is the founder and publisher of ComebackTown. He’s past Chairman of the Birmingham Regional Chamber of Commerce (BBA), Operation New Birmingham (REV Birmingham), and the City Action Partnership (CAP).
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Invite David to speak for free to your group about how we can have a more prosperous metro Birmingham. dsher@comebacktown.com
I don’t agree with David on many occasions, but this is by far his most relatable column he’s ever written. Everyone wants a safe community, quality schools for their kids, and a place you’re proud to say you’re from. In the end that’s worth more than any get rich quick investment opportunity because it’s a sure thing every single time.
Over the mountain communities are not the enemy, they are welcoming to anyone that wants to be an asset to their community.
Spot on David. Everybody knows the racial reasons behind “white flight”. The continued power of the suburbs through building great schools and safe communities is lesson the city of Birmingham needs to embrace. Every suburb has it’s problems (see missing/unaccounted money in Hoover/Helena) but generally speaking they put schools and safety as very high priorities.
So why can’t Birmingham city build good/great schools? Why can’t Birmingham build safe communities?
Building great schools and safe communities is not something that is accomplished simply by writing a check. For example school systems for Birmingham City, Hoover, Homewood, and Vestavia Hills all spent the same amount of $$$ per student (within 3.5%) for education. Those systems spent near $14,500 per student but outcomes are vastly different. Niche rates school districts with Homewood, Vestavia, and Hoover all in the top 5. Birmingham city schools is ranked 126 out 143 school districts in Alabama.
Yes, money is drained from Birmingham city by the suburbs via separate school systems, police, and fire. Suburbanites, like myself, remain concerned to combine with Birmingham city in any function, out fo fear it will only diminish level of service in their community.
Money is clearly not the only answer to build better schools and a safe community. So what is the secret sauce in which some suburbs thrive while Birmingham city dwindles?
1. Dr. Eric Cooper, founder of the National Urban Alliance, refers to inner-city students as “school dependent.” He says that, for many of them, the school is the only stable force in their lives. (And stability in urban schools is generally lacking.)
2. Similar funding per student doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. Just one example: wealthy school systems regularly raise huge amounts of money to support extracurricular activities such as band, cheerleading, debate, travel, and specific upgrades (technology extras, for example). Those parents possess significantly more disposable income.
3. The trauma issues among urban students are potentially overwhelming. It is a scientific fact that factors such as violence and blight can get into the DNA of children and remain for two generations or more.
4. Inner-city students lack access to the best healthcare, often live in food deserts, and face transportation issues.
These issues are just the tip of the iceberg. And that big ole iceberg poses extreme challenges for administrators and teachers.